Nigeria is preparing to release its rebased gross domestic product in 2025 for the first time in more than a decade, a move officials and analysts say could significantly increase the size of the economy and improve its attractiveness to investors, development partners, and global financial markets.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirmed that the exercise will reset the GDP base year from 2010 to 2019, reflecting structural changes and emerging sectors that have transformed Africa’s most populous nation in recent years.
“This rebasing allows us to better reflect the realities of our economy,” Adeyemi Adeniran, Nigeria’s Statistician-General, said during a workshop in Abuja on Jan. 20. “It’s not just about a bigger number, but about accurate, timely data that supports smarter policy and economic planning.”
He added, “Incorporating new and emerging sectors, updating our consumption baskets, and refining our data collection methods are essential to producing a more complete picture of national output.”
Nigeria’s last GDP rebasing in 2014 saw the economy leap from about $270 billion to $510 billion, making it the largest economy in Africa at the time. The update revealed under reported sectors like telecommunications, film, and financial services, sparking global investor interest and driving foreign direct investment (FDI) to nearly $60 billion that year, up from $15 billion in 2011.
Unlocking Growth Through Better Data
As Nigeria looks to accelerate economic development and expand opportunity, the upcoming GDP rebasing is expected to play a pivotal role in identifying and amplifying key drivers of growth. Experts say the exercise will provide a more accurate and comprehensive view of the economy, capturing dynamic sectors such as digital services, fintech, health insurance, and modular refineries.
A recent analysis by Proshare Nigeria suggests that rebasing could push the country’s GDP estimate closer to $490 billion—reflecting the scale of previously under reported activities. While this statistical adjustment does not instantly generate new revenue, it creates a more reliable framework for fiscal planning, investment strategies, and development interventions. By aligning economic data with current realities, the government and private sector can more effectively target policies that stimulate job creation, improve productivity, and sustain long-term growth.
“The success of the rebasing effort depends on building public trust in the institutions responsible for its implementation,”said Seun Onigbinde, Director of civic technology group BudgIT. He noted that the previous rebasing underscored the substantial impact of policy changes in the services and ICT sectors, such as telecommunications deregulation and banking sector recapitalisation.
Onigbinde explained that, “rebasing of the GDP must reflect changes in the economy which are product of public policies over time.”
The rebasing is expected to reflect the growing relevance of Nigeria’s digital economy, which includes financial technology companies, online commerce, blockchain services, and ride-hailing platforms. The marine and blue economy, now part of a dedicated ministry, is also expected to be included alongside sectors like health insurance and pension administration.
Boosting Investor Confidence
Global investors and development institutions are closely watching the rebasing process. A larger and more diversified economy improves debt-to-GDP ratios, enhances Nigeria’s creditworthiness, and helps attract funding for infrastructure and development.
“Nigeria has transformed into an investor’s haven,” said Udy Ntia, executive vice president of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd., during the CERAWeek conference hosted by “S&P Global in Houston in March. “With the Petroleum Industry Act and robust regulatory reforms, we have already attracted $17 billion in new investments.”
Foreign capital has historically responded to clarity and confidence. Nigeria’s economy shrank to $375 billion in 2023 from $477 billion in 2022, according to IMF estimates, but officials believe that figure understates the country’s true productive capacity.
Axel Schimmelpfennig, the IMF’s Nigeria mission chief, said the country’s reforms, removing fuel subsidies and unifying exchange rates, have created a more transparent environment for investors.
“When we talk to investors, they’re happy,” Schimmelpfennig told Reuters recently.
“They can invest in Nigeria and know they can repatriate proceeds. It’s a big
improvement.”
Planning and Policy Benefits
Rebasing is also critical for domestic policy. It allows the government to better assess tax collection efficiency, measure sectoral contributions, and design social programs that are data-driven and results-oriented.
“Budgeting without current data is like guessing in the dark,” said Gabriel Okeowo, Nigeria’s country director for BudgIT. “Rebasing allows planners to be more intentional about solving Nigeria’s biggest problems;poverty, infrastructure gaps, and job creation.”
Nigeria’s inflation currently hovers around 23%, and with oil prices below budgeted benchmarks, officials are banking on the rebasing to reframe the country’s fiscal outlook and provide a more accurate debt sustainability analysis.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the rebasing will support “more precise fiscal and monetary policy, improve global comparability, and build investor confidence.”
Cautious Optimism
Despite the anticipated bump in GDP size, economists warn that rebasing is not a silver bullet.
“We must acknowledge that genuine economic growth extends beyond statistical adjustments,” said Zainab Suleiman Okino, a columnist for Premium Times.
“For ordinary Nigerians to experience meaningful improvement in living standards, the President Bola Tinubu administration must complement GDP rebasing with substantive policies addressing infrastructure deficits, security challenges, agricultural productivity, manufacturing capacity, and the overall ease of doing business,”she added.
With Nigeria facing security challenges, infrastructure deficits, and an over reliance on crude oil exports, the Tinubu administration has promised deeper reforms to create jobs, attract manufacturing investment, and support small businesses.
Still, for the first time in a decade, policymakers, investors, and development partners will soon have a more accurate picture of Nigeria’s economy.
“This isn’t just about growth,” Adeniran said. “It’s about clarity. And with clarity comes opportunity.”
